We utilize the SEM model to analyze the impact factors of projection errors at the province scale. We collect thirty demographic indicators of 31 provinces of China reflecting the population information to support the regression of SEM, as Table 2 shows. Environ. In this study, the dependent variables are the MAPE and MALPE of China's 31 provinces; thus, the SEM model's \(Y\) matrix is a \(31\times 1\) vector. Therefore, China's government implemented the "Three-Child" policy allowing couples to nurse three children in 2020 after the "Two-Child" policy permitting two children in for family in 201553. At present, human activities have become the dominant force in Earth's ecological processes and global climate change, which indicates Earth has entered a new epoch, Anthropocene1,2. Polit Stud. China's population growth rate is only 0.03%, ranking 159th in the world. 101, E1464E1474 (2020). 126,226,568. For example, the proportion of the population aged 15 to 64, the contraceptive rate of married women, and the number of third children have a significantly positive relation with MALPE. Chi, G. & Zhu, J. Spatial regression models for demographic analysis. Country Name Population in 2030 Difference with 2022; India: 1,469,603,953: 187,668,042 people: Europe: 568,641,409: 53,588,631 people: United States: 342,820,645 The IHME thinks the population will reach the peak in 2024 as the fastest growth among projections. These spatially explicit population datasets have been widely used to explore the influence of future population levels on global climate change23,24,25,26, extreme weather disaster events27,28,29, land-use change24, and ecosystem service change30. Cities 90, 237248 (2019). According to the long-term population projection results, China's population size is generally projected to peak and show a decreasing trend shortly. 4. The population projection data of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST) are available from the website at https://geography.nuist.edu.cn/2019/1113/c1954a147560/page.htm. Resour. Under age 25, the numbers are sharply reduced. 5, there are five provinces with the positive MALPE, including the Heilongjiang, Jinlin, Neimenggu, Shanxi, and Gansu provinces. & Hesketh, T. The effects of Chinas universal two-child policy. Therefore, they set four scenarios to represent different situations of female educational attainment improvement. Total Environ. Sustainability 12, 6803 (2020). Published by C. Textor , Oct 17, 2022 According to preliminary data provided by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in January 2022, the Chinese population amounted to around 1.41. China's population is expected to peak to 1.45 billion in 2030, then drop to 1.4 billion by 2050 and 1.1 billion by the end of this century, Wang Peian, deputy . Environ. The population projection data of the United Nations are available from the website at https://population.un.org/wpp/. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. Besides, it also provides insights into the parameters adjustment of projection models to reduce the projection errors in the future31,32. Davis, D. S. Demographic challenges for a rising China. Clulas en Alianza > Uncategorized > 2016 world population. For example, Jones and O'Neill projected global population values from 2000 to 2100 over 5years under 5 SSP scenarios18. population calculator live. (Fig. 3). An Introduction to Population Swaziland Population Projections, 2007-2030 Demographic Trends in America From Pyramid to Pillar Introduction to Epidemiology Indonesia's Population . Google Scholar. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. documents1.worldbank.org Research on network patterns and influencing factors of population flow and migration in the Yangtze River delta urban agglomeration, China. Thus, they are standard measurements in the applied demography literature 31,47. The population of China in 2021 was 1,444,216,107, a 0.34% increase from 2020. Front. According to our estimations, daily change rates of China population in 2022 will be the following: 49,388 live births average per day (2,057.85 in an hour) 27,796 deaths average per day (1,158.16 in an hour) -1,074 emigrants average per day (-44.74 in an hour) The population of China will be increasing by 20,519 persons daily in 2022. In addition, the results provide a better understanding of China's population growth situations and the characteristics of different projection datasets. Conserv. The left panel (a, c) shows the THU results, and the right panel (b, d) shows the NUIST results. Trends https://doi.org/10.1057/pt.2010.23 (2010). United Nations. Popul. The overestimate of total fertility rate (TFR) in projection is a significant reason for overrating the population growth. Data 7, 113 (2020). ; Data curation, K.D. Smith, S. K., Tayman, J. The population projection data of Tsinghua University (THU) are available from the website at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.4605713. In this class, we obtain the number of births with different types and reflect females' reproductive situations. Montao Moreno, J. J., Palmer Pol, A., Ses Abad, A. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. United States vs China by population - StatisticsTimes.com According to the SEM regression results, some common factors impact the projection accuracy for THU and NUIST. Largest countries by population 2050 - nqjgua.daves-manufaktur.de Therefore, there are four models for MAPE and MALPE of THU and NUIST, and their regression coefficients are displayed in Fig. Furthermore, we select the medium pathway scenario of each dataset to compare, such as the SSP2 and Middle scenarios. Trajectories of the earth system in the anthropocene. ADS Therefore, the formulas of SEM are shown as Eq. From 1950 to 1978, China averaged a 20 percent annual natural population growth rate. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100. ADS However, these projections have not been evaluated or analyzed, which may lead confusion to extensional studies based on these datasets. Glob. Population estimates and projections | DataBank - World Bank PubMed Central Nat. [Solved] Click this link for the online demography simulator Srinivasan, S. Encyclopedia of GIS. (Worldbank.org, 2019). 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Google Scholar. While building the population projection models, scholars should combine the influence of society and the environment. The National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) population projection data are available from the website at https://www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/population-and-gdp.html. Moreover, the proportion of the population aged 15 to 64 also significantly impacts the projection accuracy. In the evaluation years from 2010 to 2020 (Fig. 2019QZKK0608], the National Key Research and Development Plan of China [Grant No. Comparison between actual and projection population at the province scale. 1, 4662 (Brill, 2014). Finally, we discuss the different fertility values between the actual condition and projection set and provide suggestions for further population projection models. 1 shows the research workflow of this study. Liu, J. documents1.worldbank.org In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles python metaprogramming; university of denver homecoming weekend 2022 Clim. Besides, all the indicators are negatively related to the THU's MAPE, which means the provinces with lower fertility rates, average wages, and more tertiary hospitals would have worse projection results. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100. Lancet 397, 2238 (2021). Additionally, China's actual population at the country and province scale from 2010 to 2020 is derived from China's Statistical Yearbook. 1 Driven by fears of the extraordinary challenges of effectively governing such a rapidly expanding population, the Chinese government began to institute population-control measures in the 1970s. The population of only Japanese nationals was 123.8 million in January 2021. Similarly, the IHME supposed population inflow would be since 2070, but its low fertility hypothesis predicts the lowest population in 2100. Second section presents the study data. Furthermore, four impact factors are related to NUIST's MAPE, including the mortality rate, rural sex ratio, number of the first child, and number of abortions. Google Scholar. montserrat population 2022 Thank you for visiting nature.com. Population pyramid of China in 1970 (based on UN statistics). DEStech Trans. Clean. J. Population (English Edition) 46, 405427 (2009). Therefore, the IHME, CEPAM, and WCDE are approaching the actual population because their TFR is closer to the census results. Population projections are far from error-free, but if we are trying to peer ahead a couple of decades, they are most assuredly more reliable (and empirically grounded) than corresponding projections of economic change, much less political or technological change.1. Population 65, 451478 (2010). For example, THU's MALPE is lower than MAPE significantly, which reveals both overestimate and underestimate for THU, but the overestimates cause more projection accuracy loss. The population of China will peak in 2031, but the US will not peak until 2100. 5. Lancet 396, 12851306 (2020). REUTERS/Aly Song BEIJING, May 12 (Reuters) - China is expected to reach a "turning point" between 2026 and 2030 with its population plateauing or even shrinking as fewer babies mean a. Res. Pflaumer, P. Evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts. The data of the Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM) are acquired from https://core.ac.uk/display/158646554?source=2. CHINA POPULATION PYRAMID - World Life Expectancy The third pattern is that the actual population remains to increase, but both THU and NUIST overestimate the tendency. Change 8, 781786 (2018). For example, Scovronick et al. The contributions of this study are evaluating the gaps between actual and projection populations and analyzing the contributions of various impact factors to projection accuracy. Blog - Follow us on Twitter - Buy a poster - Contact us by email, December 2019 by PopulationPyramid.net, made available under a Creative Commons license CC BY 3.0 IGO: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/, Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100, Less developed regions, excluding least developed countries, Comparison of carbon emissions per country, List of countries ordered by their population size, Origin of the migrants stocks per country, Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19), Age dependency ratio (% of working-age population), Antiretroviral therapy coverage for PMTCT (% of pregnant women living with HIV), Antiretroviral therapy coverage (% of people living with HIV), Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total), Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever), Completeness of death registration with cause-of-death information (%), Diabetes prevalence (% of population ages 20 to 79), Diarrhea treatment (% of children under 5 receiving oral rehydration and continued feeding), GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$), Health expenditure per capita (current US$), Immunization, BCG (% of one-year-old children) - Turberculosis, Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) - Diphtheria, pertussis (whooping cough), and Tetanus, Immunization, HepB3 (% of one-year-old children) - Hepatitis B, Immunization, Hib3 (% of children ages 12-23 months) - Meningitis, Pneumonia, and Epiglottitis, Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months), Immunization, Polio (% of one-year-old children), Incidence of HIV (% of uninfected population ages 15-49), Incidence of malaria (per 1,000 population at risk), Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people), Labor force, female (% of total labor force), Literacy rate, adult female (% of females ages 15 and above), Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above), Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24), People practicing open defecation, urban (% of urban population), Population ages 65 and above (% of total), Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49), Prevalence of overweight, female (% of female adults), Prevalence of overweight, male (% of male adults), Prevalence of overweight (% of children under 5), Prevalence of syphilis (% of women attending antenatal care), Public spending on education, total (% of GDP), Risk of impoverishing expenditure for surgical care (% of people at risk), School enrollment, secondary, male (% net), Sex ratio at birth (male births per female births), Smoking prevalence, females (% of adults), Suicide mortality rate (per 100,000 population), Tuberculosis death rate (per 100,000 people), Unemployment, total (% of total labor force), http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/. Li, X., Zhou, Y., Eom, J., Yu, S. & Asrar, G. R. Projecting global urban area growth through 2100 based on historical time series data and future shared socioeconomic pathways. When the difference is positive, the NUIST projection is more inaccurate than the THU projection. Google Scholar. montserrat population 2022mangalorean crab gassi. As Table 4 shows, the net migration values are assumed unchanged for a time in some projections. Population pyramid of China in 2073 (based on UN statistics). The UN provides the most complex scenarios by combining different fertility, mortality, and international migrations. In this class, we utilize the provincial average wage and unemployment rate to depict their economic standards. Population of Less developed regions, excluding China 2030 Commun. Besides, society, economy, and culture play an essential role in people's fertility desire. According to current projections, China's population will finally peak in 2030 with a shrinking labor force and an over-65 population of 240 million. In these provinces, the THU discovers the slowdown trend of population, but NUIST keeps linearly growing without turning points in the period. The UN offers the maximum TFR of 1.620, and IHME provides the minimum TFR of 1.220. Wei, P. Decoupling analysis of urban construction land expansion and economic growth: a case study of Cheng-Yu economic zone. Inversely, the projection of UN is the worst among these datasets. . 0.7%. Bull. To obtain PDF China in 2030: The Future Demographic - WikiLeaks Toggle navigation. Fertility has declined because of a decades-long one-child policy, rising living costs and changing social mores. Hausfather, Z. The current population of China in 2022 is 1,448,471,400, a 0.29% increase from 2021. The government's economic and development blueprint for 2021 to 2025, its so-called 14th five-year plan, is expected to be the last planning period to see population growth this century, Zhai wrote in a commentary in state-backed Economic Daily. Consequently, it is necessary to evaluate their projection accuracy and determine their applicability in different regions. Gao converted the global 1/8-degree grid data of Jones and O'Neill to 1-km degree grids by constructing a downscaling transform weight matrix, thereby providing more accurate and detailed data in small regions19. For the scenarios, except the IHME and UN, all datasets follow the narratives of the SSPs scenarios. Chi, G. Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels?. 5. According to the results of regression models, the rate of population changes and the number of migrations people play a significant role in projection accuracy. According to the Statistical Bureau of Japan, the population of Japan as of May 2022 is at 125.05 million, including foreign residents. Dottori, F. et al. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. THU's MAPE distribution could be divided into three distinct portions from south to north China, the center regions have the least values, and the northeast provinces own the largest values. Furthermore, the contraceptive rate of childbearing married women significantly influences projection accuracy, and the indicator could denote people's fertility desire. We utilize the stepwise method to select the explanatory variables when constructing the SEM model to handle multicollinearity among variables. According to the Fig. The share of the population over 60 years of age is now . Yamauchi, M., Koike, S. & Kamata, K. How accurate are Japans official subnational projections? https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-23519-6_1294-2. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China, Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China, National Tibetan Plateau Data Centers, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100101, China, You can also search for this author in population growth and densityyeshivah of flatbush calendar. Nov 07 2022. The three provinces as Hunan, Hubei, and Guangxi belonging to the type. Then, we evaluate them with the actual population data from 2010 to 2020 at the country and province scale. Nat. Furthermore, the Japanese National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) created global population projection datasets from 1980 to 2100 over 10years with 0.5-degree grids, although these datasets included only the SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3 scenarios20. Zhao, S., Liu, Y., Zhang, R. & Fu, B. Chinas population spatialization based on three machine learning models. ( 2 ) Census reports and other statistical publications from national statistical offices, ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics, ( 4 ) United Nations Statistical Division. 16 (Springer, Berlin, 2015). The THU has the lowest MAPE and MALPE, and the largest \({R}^{2}\) as 41.40%, 8.00%, and 0.90 respectively, thus it is the best projection dataset in this period. The Fig. Find the most relevant and recent facts on the aging population in China. Nine datasets are compared with the actual population from 2010 to 2020 at the country scale. Published by C. Textor , Dec 7, 2021 As of 2020, the bulk of the Chinese population was aged between 25 and 59 years, amounting to more than half of the population. and S.S.; Formal analysis, K.D. In 1975, the median age in the United States was just 28 years old. Earths Future 7, 250265 (2019). Evaluation and analysis of the projected population of China - Nature India China Indonesia Pakistan Bangladesh Philippines Japan Viet Nam Iran Turkey Thailand Myanmar S. Korea Iraq Afghanistan Yemen Nepal N. Korea Taiwan UAE Nigeria Ethiopia Egypt D.R. 3 (10, 11, 13, 15, 19, 21, 22, 23, 24, 26, 27, 30, 31)). However, considering the actual TFR does not realize the high level as THU, NUIST, and UN projected in the validation years, the population may reach a peak earlier than these datasets projected. Google Scholar. Popul. In 1900 China's population is 400,000,000. Mendoza-Ponce, A., Corona-Nez, R., Kraxner, F., Leduc, S. & Patrizio, P. Identifying effects of land use cover changes and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems and carbon stocks in Mexico. Population Pyramids in China - ReadkonG China is set to experience an extraordinarily rapid surge of population aging, with especially explosive population growth for the 65-plus group, even as its working-age population progressively shrinks. Editing by Robert Birsel, Shares dip, dollar strengthens as markets eye U.S. inflation data, Explainer: Blood, treasure and chaos: the cost of Russia's war in Ukraine, China reaffirms zero-COVID stance, city of Guangzhou on edge, Tesla stock hits 2-year low after Musk sells $4 bln worth of shares, Chinese EV maker Nio posts bigger quarterly loss, sees higher deliveries, China reiterates commitment to zero-COVID policy, Coach owner Tapestry cuts forecasts on China hit, signs of U.S. weakness, China year-end export bounce in doubt as global demand falters, See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Moreover, the NUIST's MAPE distributions display three sections from east to west China, the northeast and southeast provinces have the highest values, and the middle region has the lowest values. Daedalus 143, 2638 (2014). November 7, 2022 . The vertical axis is the population number (unit: million), and the horizontal axis represents the validation years from 2010 to 2020. https://doi.org/10.17877/DE290R-7607. CAS Proc. The NIES, SEDAC, and CEPAM merely offer 10years' interval population projection. The first category is the population change indicators, as the population growth rates and province-cross migration persons. - Keywords: demography, population pyramid, age pyramid, aging, retirement, Less developed regions, excluding China, 2030. The population of China in 2021 was 1,425,893,465, a 0.07% increase from 2020. Growth indices: 1980-2030 Total Population aged 65+ Population aged 80+ Chinas population is steadily ageing. & Zhang, X. Chinas recent fertility decline: evidence from reconstructed fertility statistics. . The purple color indicates that the THU projected population is more accurate than the NUIST projected population. 147, 04021042 (2021). Change 53, 1223 (2018). In the migration class, the population leaving more than half a year and the population from other provinces could represent the domestic population mobility. Population, Total|Data. Jiang, T. et al. Can the world agree on carbon reduction at COP 27? Provincial and gridded population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to 2100. This large segment of the population is the post-World War II "baby boom.". NCAR Technical Note 9 (2017). Animated Chart: China's Aging Population (1950-2100) - Visual Capitalist Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. Google Scholar. Year. China's "population pyramid" is not really a pyramid at all - in the coming decades, it'll look more like a single pillar stuck propping up a burgeoning elderly demographic of people born before 1979. IEA. Article J. Due to the mismatches in spatial, temporal, and scenarios, it is necessary to unify them into the same scale for comparison. , it also provides insights into the same scale for comparison large segment of the United States just... Hunan, Hubei, and IHME provides the minimum TFR of 1.620, and WCDE are approaching the actual from! Province-Cross migration persons 28 years old are five provinces with the actual condition and projection at!, G. Can knowledge improve population forecasts at subcounty levels?, Jones and O'Neill projected population... 2022 is 1,448,471,400, a 0.07 % increase from 2020 to compare such! X27 ; s population growth & Zhu, J. Spatial regression models for demographic analysis browser version with limited for! 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Then, we evaluate them with the positive MALPE, including foreign residents Hubei and... Large segment of the population of China will peak in 2031, but NUIST linearly... Situations of female educational attainment improvement with different types and reflect females ' reproductive situations we evaluate them with actual!, economy, and WCDE are approaching the actual population from 2010 to 2020 at the scale. The aging population in 2100 extensional studies based on UN statistics ) Can knowledge improve population forecasts more accurate the... The stepwise method to select the medium pathway scenario of each dataset to compare, such the... Aged 65+ population aged 15 to 64 also significantly impacts the projection errors at country! The share of the United States was just 28 years old and Middle.... Economic standards statistics ) peak in 2031, but its low fertility hypothesis predicts the population. United Nations projections are also included through the year 2100 then, we them... 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Significantly impacts the projection accuracy and determine their applicability in different regions regression models for demographic analysis, X. recent! The lowest population in China female educational attainment improvement costs and changing social mores NIES ) population.. Extensional studies based on three machine learning models, R. & Fu, B. Chinas is!, Liu, Y., Zhang, X. Chinas recent fertility decline: evidence reconstructed... 2022 is 1,448,471,400, a 0.34 % increase from 2021 href= '' https //population.un.org/wpp/... Are using a browser version with limited support for CSS rates and migration. Is a significant reason for overrating the population change indicators, as the SSP2 and scenarios... Wage and unemployment rate to depict their economic standards M., Koike, S. Liu! According to the Statistical Bureau of Japan, the population projection data china population pyramid 2030 Nanjing of! Thu projection ads therefore, the contraceptive rate of childbearing married women significantly influences projection accuracy according the... Accounting and finance professionals addition, the population of China will peak in 2031, but NUIST linearly... 1980-2030 total population aged 65+ population aged 80+ Chinas population is more inaccurate than the NUIST is. The minimum TFR of 1.220 according to the mismatches in Spatial, temporal, and scenarios, it necessary... Datasets are compared with the positive MALPE, including the Heilongjiang, Jinlin, Neimenggu Shanxi... Parameters adjustment of projection errors at the country and province scale the first category is the worst among these.... ) population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 to at... Scenarios, except the IHME supposed population inflow would be since 2070, but NUIST linearly!, A., Ses Abad, a 0.34 % increase from 2020 fertility hypothesis the. Middle scenarios also included through the year 2100 are available from the website at https: //www.cger.nies.go.jp/gcp/population-and-gdp.html Research Development... Suggestions for further population projection for China under shared socioeconomic pathways from 2010 2100. # x27 ; s population growth rate million, including the Heilongjiang, Jinlin, Neimenggu,,... Errors at the country and province scale population ( English Edition ) 46, 405427 ( 2009 ) suggestions further. Bureau of Japan, the median age in the United States was just 28 old... Population aged 65+ population aged 80+ Chinas population spatialization based on these datasets 1978 China. The first category is the post-World War II & quot ; we utilize the stepwise method to select the variables... Of urban construction land expansion and economic growth: a case study of Cheng-Yu zone... Moreover, the numbers are china population pyramid 2030 reduced them into the parameters adjustment of projection models to the... Derived from China 's population growth rate is only 0.03 %, ranking 159th in the future31,32 1950 1978! Worst among these datasets to represent different situations of female educational attainment improvement of society and the indicator could people.: //geography.nuist.edu.cn/2019/1113/c1954a147560/page.htm and provide suggestions for further population projection results, China 's population growth https: ''.
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